Reaching zero emissions is an innovation problem as much as a willpower problem

Climate debates often split into two camps: those who say we already have the technology and only lack the will, and those who say a breakthrough will rescue us. We think both are half right.

Deploying what already works, such as efficiency and renewable electricity, is the fastest way to cut emissions today. But some sectors, including steel, cement, long-distance aviation and shipping, are widely described as hard to decarbonise because cheap, scalable clean substitutes do not yet exist everywhere. For those, research and demonstration matter as much as political resolve.

Bill Gates's talk "Innovating to zero!" is one influential statement of this view, and worth watching as an argument rather than as an authority.

The honest objection is that promises of future breakthroughs can be used to delay action now. Our answer is to insist on both: deploy today, and hold every innovation promise to a dated milestone that anyone can check.

What would change our mind: evidence that the hard sectors can reach zero using only technology that is already cheap and available at scale.