Future prediction
Kind of thought
Prediction: A forecast with a date.
A prediction is a forecast labeled as a forecast. It names a time horizon, explains the reasoning and says what would show it to be wrong.
Use it when
You can say what will happen, by when, and what would prove you wrong.
A structure that works
- State the prediction so it can be judged true or false.
- Give a time horizon.
- Explain the reasoning and the evidence behind it.
- State how confident you are, and why.
- Say what would prove you wrong.
Common mistakes
- Vague predictions that can never be wrong.
- No time horizon.
- Treating a forecast as a certainty.
Starter headlines
- How might education change by 2040?
- A falsifiable prediction for 2030, and how we will know
- The technology that will matter more than people expect
Every thought of this kind on Think Tank is dated, labeled and open to reply. Read the house rules.