By 2030, governments in more countries will use randomly selected citizen panels than today

Prediction: by 2030, more countries than today will have used randomly selected citizen panels or assemblies, at national or regional level, to inform at least one major policy decision.

Reasoning: governments face problems, such as long-term funding and technology rules, where elected officials expect a political penalty for any clear choice. Panels chosen by lot have been used on this kind of question in several places, which makes them easier for others to copy. Copying is the main way institutional ideas spread.

Confidence: fairly high that the count rises, perhaps 75 percent. We are much less sure that panels will become routine or binding.

What would prove us wrong: if the number of countries using them stays flat or falls, or if governments that try one declare it a failure and do not repeat it.

How to check: compile a list of national and regional panels in 2025 and again in 2030, and compare the number of distinct countries.